Written by R.J. Liberatore Jr. Friday, December 14, 2012 11:35 am
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Grab your show shovels.
That’s the early hype or doom cast out by a growing number of Internet posts for the weather next week. From super forecaster AccuWeather to the small-time bloggers at the Weather Centre, everybody is talking about snow, or at least the chance.
But one man in Missouri saw it coming weeks and months ago. You may hear his name mentioned more often as we sludge through winter and stagger toward February.
He’s Gary Lezak, a weather forecaster for KSHB-TV in Kansas City.
Because the NFL Chiefs haven’t given him much of anything to cheer about in recent decades, Lezak spent his Sunday afternoons in search of more meaningful pursuits.
In the mid-1980s, he noticed how similar types of storms seem to repeat themselves over a given year.
What else can you do for fun in Kansas City anyway?
So Lezak came up with a theory. Of course, he named it after himself: the Lezak Recurring Cycle.
According to Lezak, a unique weather pattern sets up every autumn between Oct. 1 and Nov. 10. This pattern then repeats again and again over that winter.
Each year, the pattern may be a few days longer or a few days shorter than the year before. A spring pattern will set up in a few months.
This year’s winter pattern is about 52-53 days long. Let’s all grab a pen or pencil so we can circle some dates on our office calendars.
But first, we should test Lezak’s work and theory.
So on Wednesday, Dec. 19, a weak storm system is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley and transfer its energy to a growing low pressure system off the East Coast. That system is forecast to “bomb out” into a powerful nor’easter, bringing a mix of strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal beach erosion. Heavy blizzard-like conditions could occur over I-95 and west.
Now, lets count back 53 days…1-2-3, etc.
I’ll wait for few moments while you flip the calendar back through November and then into October.
Yep, on Oct. 29 a weak area of low pressure transferred its energy to a low pressure system off the East Coast which bombed out. You might remember Superstorm Sandy?
Everybody knows the rest of that story.
But how about what is in store for rest of this winter-long tale?
Using Lezak’s theory, a similar storm should occur 52-53 days after Dec. 19. If it does, the East Coast could be in trouble from the dangers caused by a monster of a storm on Saturday, Feb. 9 or Sunday, Feb. 10.
Unfortunately, that seems about right.
Tell us what you think?
We look forward to publishing your responses here and on our Facebook page.