Hurricane forecaster predicts above active September, October

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National Hurricane Center/When Tropical Strom Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, Aug. 16, she signaled the start of what could be an active hurricane season in August, September and October, according to the Climate Prediction Center. National Hurricane Center/When Tropical Strom Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, Aug. 16, she signaled the start of what could be an active hurricane season in August, September and October, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

With the season’s fifth tropical in the Atlantic, a leading government forecaster is warning of a 70 percent chance of an above-active hurricane season during August, September and October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center’s updated hurricane outlook, just released this month, indicates a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season in the Atlantic hurricane region.

Also, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 25 percent chance of a “normal” season and only a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.

The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

The air and water conditions that prompted the ClimatePredictionCenter to forecast an above-average hurricane season in May have remained in place. Even worse, those conditions are expected to remain in place through the peak months of the hurricane season: August, September and October.

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, the ClimatePredictionCenter estimates a 70 percent likelihood of the following ranges of activity for the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season: 13-19 named storms, six to nine hurricanes and three-five major hurricanes.

The ClimatePredictionCenter said the 1981-2010 averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

To date, four tropical storms – Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian – have formed in the Atlantic basin, with Chantal and Dorian forming in the deep tropical Atlantic. For the remainder of the season, an additional 9-15 named storms are expected. Of those storms, six to nine are likely to become hurricanes with three to five reaching major hurricane status, the ClimatePredictionCenter said.

June and July sea surface temperatures ranged about .2 degrees warmer than normal, the Climate Prediction Center said. Although this is somewhat less than in recent years, it is consistent with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.

Since 1995, hurricane seasons have averaged about 15 named storms with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes.

Since 1995, 12 of the 18 hurricane seasons have been classified as above normal.


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