South Jersey snow update: six inches plus?

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Weather forecasting models on Monday afternoon painted a bulls-eye of snowfall across South Jersey. They updated their snowfall forecasts from an inch or two to more than half a foot for later this week across South Jersey./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com Weather forecasting models on Monday afternoon painted a bulls-eye of snowfall across South Jersey. They updated their snowfall forecasts from an inch or two to more than half a foot for later this week across South Jersey./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com

Weather forecasting models on Monday afternoon painted a bulls-eye of snowfall across South Jersey. They updated their snowfall forecasts from an inch or two to more than half a foot for later this week across South Jersey. Here are the snow totals that the GFS (National Weather Service) and ECMWF (European) South Jersey snowfall forecast:

South Jersey snow: GFS forecast

The National Weather Service’s Global Forecast Model has upped is snowfall forecast from 1-2 inches to 6-9 inches over interior portions of South Jersey. Areas along the coast and in Cape May County will receive much less snow. The snow will start on Thursday and last until Friday morning.

A clipper system is forecast to transfer its energy on Thursday to a coastal low that will “bomb out” and quickly intensify to a major snowstorm.

Luckily, South Jersey will be on the lower end of snow amounts that could exceed a foot of snow from central Pennsylvania through Southern New York and into New England.

The key factors are when and where the coastal low forms and how much cold air it has to work with.

South Jersey snow: European model forecast

The ECMWF began the weekend calling for about 10 inches of snow on Thursday and Friday, but scaled back its snowfall forecast to just a few inches on Sunday. However, Monday’s 12 p.m. run by the ECMWF again called for 6-9 inches of snow to fall Thursday and Friday across most of New Jersey. Less snow will fall on the fingertip of Cape May County.

The ECMWF forecasts more than 2 feet of snow to fall by mid-month across a large portion of New York and New England.


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