NWS: South Jersey faces midweek snow threat

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While major weather models continue to battle over storm specifics, the National Weather Service has issued an early snow forecast for South Jersey and the I-95 corridor the middle of this week./NWS While major weather models continue to battle over storm specifics, the National Weather Service has issued an early snow forecast for South Jersey and the I-95 corridor the middle of this week./NWS While major weather models continue to battle over storm specifics, the National Weather Service has issued an early snow forecast for South Jersey and the I-95 corridor the middle of this week.

Depending on the final storm path, you could see the not-so-welcome sight of people shoveling their driveways, plows thundering down the roadways and schoolchildren at home. Again.

South Jersey early show outlook

The National Weather Service Mount Holly Forecast Center issued a “preliminary” outlook this morning for late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

According to the National Weather Service, a coastal low-pressure system is predicted to lumber up the coast during the early portion of the week and intensify when it reaches the Middle Atlantic States.

The GFS model brings a coastal low off of New Jersey during the middle of the week.Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com The GFS model brings a coastal low off of New Jersey during the middle of the week.Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com However, the National Weather Service’s GFS model points the low out to sea, keeping snow amounts low. As a result, the Jersey Shore could receive 2-4 inches of snow because some of the precipitation could fall as rain. Areas farther inland, including the western portions of Atlantic County, could get 4-6 inches. It looks as though Cape May County residents might only get 1-2 inches of snow.

Those living along the I-95 corridor receive the grand prize for a 6- to 8-inch storm total.

Changing conditions could increase or lower snow totals

However, the National Weather Services warns that snow totals could increase if any of several factors change between now and Thursday morning.

Snow totals could increase if the coastal low intensifies more rapidly than the current forecast. If the low stays closer to the coast, snow numbers would increase over Pennsylvania, but could decrease over South Jersey. Finally, a higher snow ratio would deliver more snow than the current outlook which is based on a 10-1 ratio.

Potential for heavy snow

“No matter, a potent mid-Atlantic coastal storm looms and forecasts late today through midweek should be monitored,” the National Weather Service said. “I would not change any of my plans at this time, but if this idea for heavy snow is still consistently portrayed on Tuesday, then I'd mentally prepare alternate options, in case warnings for heavy snow are eventually issued for Wednedsay night intoThursday.”

What the other models are saying

The Canadian weather model brings a snowstorm up the coast during the middle of the week./Weatherbell analytics, www.weatherbell.com The Canadian weather model brings a snowstorm up the coast during the middle of the week./Weatherbell analytics, www.weatherbell.com While the snow-hungry Canadian and European models are forecasting higher snow totals, those models have issued enthusiastic forecasts during the early going. However, the NAM, Canadian, and European models call for a nor’easter to bomb out near the Jersey Shore. While this would change most of the Garden State’s precipitation to rain, a stronger storm could deliver higher amounts of snow inland across Pennsylvania, North Jersey and New England.

Looking back

The Sunday night snowfall that swept through New Jersey delivered 1.5 inches of snow at the Atlantic City International Airport where the National Weather Service keeps its official records. Sunday’s high temperature was 33 degrees, which is 10 degrees colder than normal.


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