Disruptive snowfall aims for South Jersey

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A tricky-to-call late-season winter storm appears headed for the Middle Atlantic States and could drop a disruptive amount of snow, rain or freezing rain across the area, according to multiple weather forecasts./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com A tricky-to-call late-season winter storm appears headed for the Middle Atlantic States and could drop a disruptive amount of snow, rain or freezing rain across the area, according to multiple weather forecasts./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com

A tricky-to-call late-season winter storm appears headed for the Middle Atlantic States and could drop a disruptive amount of snow, rain or freezing rain across the area, according to multiple weather forecasts.

South Jersey, along with portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia and New York, could be under the gun for up to 12 inches of snow, according to the National Weather Service Mount Holly Forecast Center.

The forecast center has issued a winter weather advisory for the area beginning Sunday night.

"The chances remain for a protracted and impacting winter weather event centered on Sunday night and Monday day," the National Weather Service said.

As a result, both Monday morning and Monday afternoon commutes are likely to be hazardous, the Weather Service said.

Why a tricky forecast?

Meteorologists are having a difficult time forecasting the storm’s effects because its sweet spot will not be too terribly wide.

Brutally cold air to the north and warm air to the south are going to set up a battle zone of moisture across the Mason-Dixon line. As a result, a difference of 50 miles or so north or south of the storm's sweet spot could mean the difference between a receiving few inches of snow and getting more than a foot.

Newest snow totals

The GFS model issued at noon Friday, Feb. 28 calls for a swath of a foot or more of snow along the Pennsylvania and New Jersey turnpikes. However, coastal areas of Cape May and Atlantic counties could receive less than a few inches of snow. Model runs earlier in the day kept the foot-plus storm totals closer to Philadelphia.


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