Forecasters wonder how much snow mid-week coastal storm could bring to South Jersey

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Weather forecasters are checking out weather models like doctors examining x-rays with the hopes of offering a prognosis for a possible mid-week snowstorm on or near South Jersey./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com Weather forecasters are checking out weather models like doctors examining x-rays with the hopes of offering a prognosis for a possible mid-week snowstorm on or near South Jersey./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com Weather forecasters are checking out weather models like doctors examining x-rays with the hopes of offering a prognosis for a possible mid-week snowstorm on or near South Jersey.

Depending on the track of the storm, the Jersey Shore could get a few inches or more than a foot. Here is why:

National Weather Service outlook

“Confidence is high that a strong storm will develop off the East Coast early Tuesday and intensify as it tracks northeast into Wednesday,” the National Weather Service said. “However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding how close to the coast the storm will track. Currently, most computer models indicate that the track will be far enough offshore that coastal sections near and east of the I-95 corridor will be on the western fringe of the storm, but there is a lot of variability in the forecast tracks. The atmospheric energy that will cause this storm to form is currently over the Pacific Ocean. There has been a tendency this winter for the model forecasts to shift further to the west once the energy reaches the west coast of North America where there is more data available. NWS forecasters will continue to monitor this potential storm closely as sufficient cold air is expected to be in place for this storm to support some late-season snow for much of the mid-Atlantic region into the Northeast.”

Another warm weekend leads to a workweek snowstorm

For the third time this month, a fairly warm weekend could lead to a workweek snowstorm

On Sunday, March 2, the temperature reached 52 degrees before a 6- to 9-inch snowstorm fell across South Jersey the next day. Then on Saturday, the temperature reached 63 degrees before 4-9 inches of snow fell the following Wednesday.

Now history is poised to repeat itself, yet again.

Another super Saturday

According to the National Weather Service, South Jersey mainland high temperatures could reach nearly 70 degrees on Saturday, March 22. That’s because a high pressure system to our southeast will push warm southerly air up through the Garden State.

Cold front crashes the party

A late-day cold front rush through the area on Saturday evening, crashing the party and sending temperatures on a downward trend through Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.

Sunday’s high will only reach 46 degrees and Monday’s high temperature may not hit 40, the Weather Service said.

Tuesday trouble

Temperatures remain unseasonably cool and in the lower 40s on Tuesday as rain moves in from the south as the storm climbs up the east coast. Then temperatures will cool during the overnight hours allowing the rain to change to snow. Meanwhile, the coastal low win intensify and bomb out off the Jersey Shore.

Storm outlook

The Canadian weather model indicates a heavy area of snow could fall just off the coast of South Jersey./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com The Canadian weather model indicates a heavy area of snow could fall just off the coast of South Jersey./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com As of Friday’s weather models, South Jersey suffers a near miss and receives anywhere from 1-2 inches to 3-6 inches.

If the storm moves 50 miles to the west and closer to New Jersey, those numbers double at least. The current European and Candian weather models show an area of more than a foot snow about 30-50 miles east of South Jersey. So a more westerly storm path will bring heavy snow to South Jersey.

However, the opposite could be true also.

If the storm moves 50 miles to the east and takes the heavy precipitation with it, everybody will say “What were they talking about?”

Until then…

Look for different model runs to go back and forth during the weekend before they all come to some sort of an agreement on Monday when the high resolution NAM becomes available.

Until then, we’ll just have to keep looking at the x-rays.

 

 


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