No fooling, long-term outlooks call for moderating temperatures

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Does this week’s forecast calling for a string of 60-degree temperatures mean our multi-month-long sting of colder-than-normal temperatures is over? The answer just might be maybe and maybe not. Here are a few outlooks for April./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com Does this week’s forecast calling for a string of 60-degree temperatures mean our multi-month-long sting of colder-than-normal temperatures is over? The answer just might be maybe and maybe not. Here are a few outlooks for April./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com Does this week’s forecast calling for a string of 60-degree temperatures mean our multi-month-long sting of colder-than-normal temperatures is over?

The answer just might be maybe and maybe not. Here are a few outlooks for April.

April 1 marks a big day for most of us. Some will slide their digital calendars from March to April. Others will celebrate April Fool’s Day with their best practical jokes.

Some will wonder if it is finally time to consider putting away their winter sweaters, gloves and boots.

You just might want to put them away, if trends hold true.

According to the National Weather Service, a southwesterly breeze will open the door to above-normal temperatures through most of the week.

From Tuesday April 1 through Monday, April 7, South Jersey mainland high temperatures are expected to be at 59 degrees or higher. The warmest day could be Wednesday when temperatures climb to 66 degrees. Most of the afternoon highs will settle in the lower-60s.

There is some bad news, however.

A cold front that is expected to stall near the Pennsylvania-Maryland border will create the chance for showers from Thursday through Saturday, the National Weather Service says.

 Long-term trends

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecasting System contains the first good news in months for Middle Atlantic outdoor enthusiasts.

The long-awaited move from colder-than-normal to normal temperatures might be happening, according to the latest GFS forecast for April. The month-long outlook issued on March 31 indicated normal temperatures for New Jersey, above normal temperatures for much of the country. Colder-than-normal temperatures made a retreat to the Northeast.

However, previous runs had shown that April could run 3-5 degrees colder than normal just like March was.

Two weeks ago, the Climate Prediction Center suggested April would be colder than normal for the upper one-third of the country./Climate Prediction Center Two weeks ago, the Climate Prediction Center suggested April would be colder than normal for the upper one-third of the country./Climate Prediction Center An April temperature outlook posted two weeks ago by the Climate Prediction Center indicated a greater chance for below-normal-temperatures for the month.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 8- to 14-day outlook continues to show a greater likelihood of colder than normal temperatures.

The CPC also indicates a greater likelihood of higher-than-normal precipitations for the first half of April.

So what else is new?

 April-May-June outlook

The laltest spring outlook indicates a near-normal temperature pattern./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com The laltest spring outlook indicates a near-normal temperature pattern./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com Remember, April is the month when South Jersey mainland high temperatures climb through the 60s. We climb through the 70s in May and settle into the beach-friendly 80s in June.

The NCEP GFS outlook for spring 2014 indicates normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Forecasters suggest the second half of spring could be warmer than normal to make up for a colder-than-normal start.

After a winter in which the average temperature was about 5 degrees below average, seasonable warmth is a good thing and above-average temperatures are even better.

Don’t you think?

 

 

 


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