Experts predict quiet 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, but…

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According to By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of Colorado State University, early-spring conditions and a likely El Nino effect will limit the potential for an active 2014 Hurricane Season./NWS According to By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of Colorado State University, early-spring conditions and a likely El Nino effect will limit the potential for an active 2014 Hurricane Season./NWS A leading pair of national hurricane experts have predicted a quieter-than-normal 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but warns that only one land-falling storm could turn a quiet year into a disaster for coastal residents.

According to By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of Colorado State University, early-spring conditions and a likely El Nino effect will limit the potential for an active 2014 Hurricane Season.

Klotzbach and Gray issued their annual hurricane outlook on Thursday, April 10.

“Information obtained through March 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season,” the said. “We estimate that 2014 will have only three hurricanes, nine named storms, and one major hurricane.”

Cooler-than-normal Atlantic Ocean water temperatures are part of the reason for a below-normal hurricane season, they said.

“We anticipate a below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of a relatively high likelihood of at least a moderate El Niño and a relatively cool tropical Atlantic,” they said. “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Likelihood of a United States impact

Because of the lower forecast numbers, the likelihood of a hurricane impacting the United States coast has gone down as well, Klotzbach and Gray said.

There is a 35 percent chance of a hurricane impacting anywhere along the United States coastline from Maine to Texas. The normal chances are 52 percent.

There is a 20 percent chance of a hurricane striking the United States east coast from Florida to Maine. The average is 31 percent.

Finally, there is a 19 percent chance of a hurricane striking the Gulf Coast, according to Klotzbach and Gray.

The chances of a major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast is 28 percent. The average for the last century is 42 percent.

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