Thunderstorms, topical system could provide South Jersey fireworks on July 4

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The National Hurricane Center and other weather forecasters are watching the possible development of a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean that could dampen the skies and spirits of the Independence Day weekend./NWS The National Hurricane Center and other weather forecasters are watching the possible development of a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean that could dampen the skies and spirits of the Independence Day weekend./NWS The National Hurricane Center and other weather forecasters are watching the possible development of a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean that could dampen the skies and spirits of the Independence Day weekend.

According to the National Hurricane Center, an area of showers and thunderstorms located 210 miles southeast of St. Augustine, Fla., has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical system later this week.

If it develops, the first tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season would come to life off the Southeast Coast around mid-week and move rapidly to the Northeast on Thursday, July 3 and Friday, July 4.

However, not all weather models agree on a forecast for the July 4 weekend.

The National Hurricane Center and other weather forecasters are watching the possible development of a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean that could dampen the skies and spirits of the Independence Day weekend./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com The National Hurricane Center and other weather forecasters are watching the possible development of a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean that could dampen the skies and spirits of the Independence Day weekend./Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com July 4: what could happened

The European model’s run on Monday morning posted the most ominous forecast for the  July 4 weekend. The European model was forecasting for a 973 mb tropical storm on Friday, July 4 to pass close enough to the JerseyShore to cause gusty winds, dangerous rip currents and rain. Conditions would improve over the final two-thirds of the Independence Day Weekend.

The National Weather Service’s GFS model is forecasting a weaker storm that would graze the Jersey Shore with about a quarter-inch of rain on Friday, July 4.

The Canadian weather model calls for a solid, three-day run of low-humidity wonderful weekend weather.

A two-fisted cold front that will arrive with showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday will bully the tropical system out to sea.

South Jersey weather factors

The July 4 weather for South Jersey all depends on how well the tropical system forms, how quickly a two-fisted cold front arrives on Wednesday and Thursday and how quickly the tropical system moves to the northeast and out of the weekend weather picture.

As they say in the weather world, conditions change so check back often.

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