South Jersey winter plans: El Nino still coming, maybe

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The weather phenomenon that could drive up South Jersey temperatures and push away hurricanes is still on its way, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. But there is less certainty that a El Nino is coming. Here is the latest: The weather phenomenon that could drive up South Jersey temperatures and push away hurricanes is still on its way, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. But there is less certainty that a El Nino is coming. Here is the latest: The weather phenomenon that could drive up South Jersey temperatures and push away hurricanes is still on its way, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. But there is less certainty that a El Nino is coming and how strong it will be when it does get here. Here is the latest:

The odds of an El Nino condition evolving during the second half of 2014 have diminished, according to the latest monthly outlook posted Aug. 7 by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

El Nino, a condition of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific Coast of South America, has world-wide impacts on storms, temperatures and precipitation levels.

The northern United States is generally warmer during an El Nino year and fewer hurricanes form in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Weather Service.

2014-15 El Nino odds

The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65 percent during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter, the ClimatePredictionCenter said. Earlier, forecasters thought there was an 80 percent chance of an El Nino forming.

During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, a EL Nino condition, However, many portions of the Pacific Ocean were enjoying above-average temperatures as well.

Though eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures are warmer than normal, the atmosphere above the ocean has not warmed yet, the Climate Prediction Center said.

An official El Nino is expected to start later this month or early September, the National Weather Service said. El Nino will last into next year. A weak or mild El Nino is expected.

El Nino effects

Temperatures across the northern United States are expected to me several degees warmer than normal from December through February as indicated in this chart provided by Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com Temperatures across the northern United States are expected to me several degees warmer than normal from December through February as indicated in this chart provided by Weatherbell Analytics, www.weatherbell.com El Nino tends to limit the number of hurricanes that form, and allows for warmer-than-normal conditions across the northern United States during the winter months.

Currently, the long-term CFS temperature model is indicating that temperatures in South Jersey could be about 4-5 degrees F warmer than normal from December 2014 through February 2015.

That means a South Jersey mainland mid-winter daily high could average around 45-46 degrees rather than the usual 41.

Parts of the Midwest United States could experience daily temperatures that are 8 degrees warmer than normal, according to the CFS.

 What about the weekend of Aug. 9-10?

Before mid-week rain, South Jersey gets a chance to enjoy  a wonderful sunny weekend .

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season update

There is plenty of good news for coastal residents according the ClimatePredictionCenter’s new hurricane forecast.

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