Watching the tropics: A future ‘Cristobal’ beginning to form

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A tropical disturbance that is forecast to “cause life-threatening flash floods” in Hispaniola today is aiming toward the east coast of the United States next week, according to the National Hurricane Center A tropical disturbance that is forecast to “cause life-threatening flash floods” in Hispaniola today is aiming toward the east coast of the United States next week, according to the National Hurricane Center A tropical disturbance that is forecast to “cause life-threatening flash floods” in Hispaniola today is aiming toward the east coast of the United States next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

 

The storm that could eventually become Hurricane Cristobal was beginning to develop near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. advisory on Saturday, Aug. 23.

 

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating the system which is moving west-northwest, the Hurricane Center said.

 

There is a 90 percent of tropical storm formation, the first step to becoming a hurricane, during the next 2-5 days, the National Hurricane Center said.

 

The disturbance is forecast to move over the Bahamas today, causing heavy rains and gusty winds, the Hurricane Center said.

 

” These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance notice,” the Hurricane Center said.

 

 Looking ahead for Cristobal

 

The National Hurricane Center indicates that the storm that could become Hurricane Cristobal is aiming for an area off the Florida coast.

 

Where it goes from there, however, has not been determined as of Saturday, Aug. 23.

 

The Canadian, European and National Weather Service long-term models are no where near in agreement on where Cristobal will go.

 

As of Saturday morning, the models ranged widely over three very opposite forecasts which continue to flip back and forth.

 

The European weather model is indicating that Cristobal will parallel the East Coast before rapidly curving out to sea off the coast of Virginia.

 

The National Weather Service GFS forecast model has Cristobal making landfall in Florida as a tropical storm. Then Cristobal would crawl up the East Coast as a heavy rainmaking storm that would last through the Labor Day weekend.

 

The Canadian weather model keeps Cristobal far out to sea and never threatening land. The only effects would be a rough ocean and an increase in rip currents through the Labor Day Weekend.

Be prepared, read Shore News Today’s Storm Ready Magazine 

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 Catch up on past Cristobal articles: East Coast on the lookout for a possible tropical storm, hurricane

 

 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season update

 

There is plenty of good news for coastal residents according the ClimatePredictionCenter’s new hurricane forecast.

 

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