Update: Tropical depression forms, but future track far from certain

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Weather models continue to fight over the future path of what should become a category 1 Hurricane Cristobal and how it will affect East Coast Labor Day vacation plans./National Hurricane Center. Weather models continue to fight over the future path of what should become a category 1 Hurricane Cristobal and how it will affect East Coast Labor Day vacation plans./National Hurricane Center. It’s out there, but no one knows where it will go, says the National Hurricane Center of the tropical depression that should become Hurricane Cristobal by 2 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 26.

That’s the word from the National Hurricane Center after an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft on Saturday determined that tropical depression No. 4 of the 2014 hurricane season has formed southeast of the Bahamas.

The depression should become a tropical storm Sunday, Aug. 24 while it moves generally to the northwest, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane models continue to show several different possible outcomes for the future category 1 Hurricane Cristobal./University of Wisconsin/Milwaukee Hurricane models continue to show several different possible outcomes for the future category 1 Hurricane Cristobal./University of Wisconsin/Milwaukee However, weather forecasting models can’t get a handle on how Cristobal will interact with a trough in the atmosphere and west-to-east steering currents.

By Wednesday, Aug. 27, Cristobal could be anywhere from making a land fall in the Carolinas to storming harmlessly off to the northeast and far away from land.

Right now, no one knows.

The European, Canadian and National Weather Service models have flip-flopped from showing Cristobal as a land-falling storm to one that stays well out to sea.

It may be another 36-48 hours before the National Hurricane Center can narrow down its very wide forecast cone.


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Catch up on past Cristobal articles: East Coast on the lookout for a possible tropical storm, hurricane 

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season update

There is plenty of good news for coastal residents according the Climate Prediction Center’s new hurricane forecast.


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